Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 0.333445 0.379593 0.429704 0.488145 0.554425 0.627256 0.713357
2025-09-14 0.253808 0.312193 0.380502 0.466284 0.571118 0.695070 0.852802
2025-09-21 0.202558 0.267280 0.348298 0.457085 0.599311 0.778952 1.023212
2025-09-28 0.163201 0.229878 0.318750 0.445729 0.622439 0.859681 1.202623
2025-10-05 0.140844 0.210781 0.309582 0.459105 0.679559 0.992676 1.471581
2025-10-12 0.118912 0.188383 0.292032 0.457581 0.715222 1.100930 1.722788
2025-10-19 0.102799 0.171789 0.280121 0.462110 0.760018 1.228463 2.021777
2025-10-26 0.091069 0.160019 0.273613 0.473697 0.817105 1.382492 2.385015
2025-11-02 0.076613 0.141214 0.252619 0.457894 0.826420 1.460207 2.634084
2025-11-09 0.063628 0.122745 0.229225 0.434017 0.817723 1.505481 2.833064
2025-11-16 0.054931 0.110639 0.215189 0.424583 0.833059 1.594333 3.122188
2025-11-23 0.047535 0.099768 0.201723 0.413965 0.844218 1.676407 3.409626
2025-11-30 0.042956 0.093996 0.197655 0.422036 0.894884 1.844333 3.896986
2025-12-07 0.036692 0.083654 0.182831 0.405913 0.894285 1.911587 4.192961
2025-12-14 0.032242 0.076478 0.173476 0.399878 0.914012 2.023436 4.600427
2025-12-21 0.028242 0.069614 0.163702 0.391321 0.926886 2.122665 4.996263
2025-12-28 0.026260 0.067127 0.163336 0.404114 0.989970 2.340885 5.693173
2026-01-04 0.023659 0.062677 0.157691 0.403509 1.021575 2.492361 6.258316
2026-01-11 0.021664 0.059406 0.154366 0.408044 1.066376 2.681243 6.942834
2026-01-18 0.020198 0.057263 0.153505 0.418685 1.128176 2.920148 7.788553
2026-01-25 0.017759 0.052047 0.143920 0.404969 1.124905 2.996811 8.231245
2026-02-01 0.015332 0.046428 0.132356 0.384007 1.098990 3.011702 8.513698
2026-02-08 0.013709 0.042839 0.125761 0.375777 1.106730 3.116370 9.056335